The paradigm shift in global geopolitics nurtures a long-maturing debate on the European strategic autonomy. Originating from traditional defence and security policies, this debate has grown to include supply chains and more recently strategic EU policies. The definition of ‘strategic autonomy’ used by the think tank of the European Parliament is the “[…] capacity of the EU to act autonomously – that is, without being dependent on other countries – in strategically important policy areas.” The strategically important policy areas commonly known as the twin green and digital transition are linked with global interactions that bring about benefits but also risks of foreign coercion and influence. This links the EU strategic autonomy with the European Green Deal and the EU Digital Strategy, adding the layers of security and independence.

Recent discussions about strategic autonomy have adopted a more moderate rhetoric, calling for an Open Strategic Autonomy1. The think tank of the European Parliament defines the Open Strategic Autonomy as “the capacity to cope alone if necessary but without ruling out cooperation whenever possible.” Despite this relaxation, observers from the European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE) warn of the double-edge-sword character of the Open Strategic Autonomy. It deters access to the Single Market, which may have an unintended opposite effect on efforts to reduce strategic dependencies.  

The absorption of the short-term effects of the Open Strategic Autonomy will inevitably confront policymaking on the ground. European regions are at the crossroads of two development pathways. On the one hand, regional policy benefits from decades of trade liberalization, access to global markets, investment and technology partnerships. On the other hand, the Open Strategic Autonomy is expected to reshuffle regional income sources and dependencies.  

Occupying a prominent position within the priorities of the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU 2023, the Open Strategic Autonomy became widely recognized amongst sectoral and territorial policymakers alike. Regional policies will have to adapt to the reasons for and effects of autonomy in the green and digital transition. This requires new evidence that enables regional policymakers to cope with trade-offs between independence and the benefits of global supply chains. Regional policymaking needs informed decisions about actions to limit negative effects of these trade-offs and seize new opportunities. In this context, the TAP links the twin green and digital transition with regional policies, accounting for the territorial dimension of the Open Strategic Autonomy. 

The Open Strategic Autonomy manifests itself in policy instruments that will alter inter-regional interactions of the entire European Economic Area (EEA). Regional development in the EEA will have to navigate between the status quo ante and the status necessitates. The former is characterised by a decades-long culture of open regional economies with unparalleled access to global markets, technologies and capital. The latter introduces a new culture of vigilance in global interactions, expressed through technological sovereignty, trade defence, export and foreign investment controls. Regional policymakers in the EEA will be confronted with the need to comprehend and moderate the way of how the Open Strategic Autonomy will influence their ability to deliver on competitiveness amidst the green and digital transition.  

Driven by the pursuit of autonomy in the European decarbonization and digitalization commitments, the new culture of global interactions can be traced in new trade principles, calls for technological sovereignty and vigilance with regard to foreign capital ownership. Such shifts in global interactions need to be analyzed from the perspective of territorial policy, accounting for specific spatial effects as expectedly no region can follow the same roadmap for adaptation to the new conditions for competitiveness and green and digital transition. Trade, technology and investment policies have a long track record of territorial monitoring: ESPON Europe in the world has been investigating regional trade patterns; ESPON IRIE and Technological Transformation & Transitioning of Regional Economies (T4) have contributed with new knowledge on the regional effects of global technological developments and ESPON FDI provided evidence on regional patterns of foreign capital ownership. The extant evidence on the territorial effects of changes in trade, the access to key technological developments and foreign capital ownership, preceding the Open Strategic Autonomy, gives this TAP an advanced starting position in a new chapter of regional development. This chapter will be dominated by the notion of autonomous decarbonization and digitalisation, positioning trade, technological sovereignty and foreign capital ownership higher on the agenda of territorial policies.  

Global trade 

In one of its recent reviews of the Open Strategic Autonomy, the think tank ECIPE warns of risks for the European regions. With the current volumes of free trade, the regions enjoy a unique access to global markets but a coercive pursuit of autonomy could narrow this access and consequently reduce regional growth. ECIPE reminds of the magnitude of such consequences, considering that 85% of the projected economic growth is estimated to originate from outside the EU. Regional growth is, however, not the only concern. EU regions rely on imports of key raw materials for the green and digital transition, notably rare earth elements, 98% of which are currently imported from China. The challenge for the European regions grows in complexity amidst efforts to reconcile trade liberalisation with the Open Strategic Autonomy. A recent example is the Mercosur agreement regarded as beneficial for the EU diversification of rare earth supply chains but harmful for EU agricultural regions.

Technological sovereignty

Technological sovereignty underlines the intentions to retain strategic partnerships while putting an emphasis on de-risking in relation to key enabling technologies. Questioning the approach of technological isolationism, the digital community think tank of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology reminds of the hyperconnected character of regional innovation systems and emphasizes that technological sovereignty is about ‘freedom to operate’, which necessitates collaboration. The territorial dimension of risks related to the technological sovereignty is addressed in an assessment of ECIPE, warning of disproportionate negative effects on the competitiveness of smaller economies: Technology protectionism “… would disproportionately hurt Europe’s northern, eastern and southern countries more than the large countries whose economies are generally more diverse than Europe’s smaller Member States.”  

Foreign capital ownership 

This layer is particularly important for the TAP as it adds more complexity to extant ESPON evidence on this subject and questions recommendations related to EU policies for attracting FDI to Europe. In the context of the green and digital transition, concerns over foreign direct investment are often linked to foreign-government influence on critical maritime infrastructure and 5G. Controlling for externally subsidized influence and distortions, the Open Strategic Autonomy builds a protective layer for European regions receiving foreign direct investment. Analysts consider this a major game changer and warn of costs imposed on investors, which may deter regional investment.  

The above considerations demonstrate that European regions will not be spared from repercussions when taking the path towards autonomous green and digital transition. Regional policymakers must act in a timely manner in order to cushion effects that jeopardise their competitiveness. 

Considering that the effects of global interactions on European regions remain outside the analytical radar of regional policies in general, the TAP seeks to prepare Cohesion Policy architects and beneficiaries alike for a vigilant, dynamic and adaptive approach towards territorial competitiveness and the green and digital transition. The adaptation of territorial strategies for competitiveness, decarbonization and digitalization to the Open Strategic Autonomy requires empirically backed or simulation-aided advice. Concretely, regional policymakers need evidence on changes in competitiveness as well as prospects for decarbonization and digitalization as a result of changes in global trade, access to global technological networks and foreign investment. 

The EU deploys already a number of instruments influencing competitiveness and shaping the prospects of regional autonomy in the green and digital transitions:  

• Free Trade Agreements with strategic partners pursuing diversification of strategic supplies and de-risking, 
• the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, also known as the EU carbon tariff,  
• the Anti-coercion Instrument,  
• the Critical Raw Materials Act,  
• the modernised Export Control Regulation,  
• the updated Enforcement Regulation, 
• the EU strategy for export credits, 
• the EU supply chain law,  
• the Net Zero Industry Act, 
• the European Chips Act, 
• the Foreign Subsidy Regulation,  
• the EU export control system,  
• the European Chips Act,  
• the 5G toolbox, etc. 

The TAP will introduce a set of research activities that reveal the territorial dimension of such instruments (admissible is both individual instruments or an interaction of a series of instruments). Firstly, new research is needed to provide a better understanding of strategic dependencies of European regions on global value chains, influencing their competitiveness and shaping their digital and green transition. Secondly, once the strategic dependencies are known, the research activities will need to turn attention to the question of how instruments of the Open Strategic Autonomy reshuffle strategic dependencies, and consequently affect regional competitiveness and the prospects for digital and green transition. To respect the multidimensionality of strategic dependencies, individual research activities need to turn attention to  global trade, technological networks and foreign capital ownership. That is, in each of these dimensions, strategic dependencies need to be first detected and second, their exposure to the instruments of the Open Strategic Autonomy needs to be ascertained. For a realistic implementation at the level of individual research activities, certain constraints can be imposed, e.g. a focus on industries with stronger impact on the digital and green transition or on certain global partners of strategic value. The TAP will focus on the joint effects of regional strategic dependencies and their exposure to the instruments of the Open Strategic Autonomy, unlike preceding ESPON research that addresses the regional effects of global trade, technological networks and foreign capital in general. Moreover, research needs to consider the risks from these joint effects (e.g. changes in labour markets and industries) and responses to de-risk (e.g. mineral exploration, technological developments, circular economy). This engenders a unique uptake potential for territorial policies, adding value with: 

• evidence on: 
  • the position of a certain region in global value chains and networks (the region in the world) and its attractiveness for foreign capital (the world in the region) 
  • benefits and disadvantages from this position for regional competitiveness and the green and digital transition; 
  • risks and opportunities from re-positioning for regional competitiveness and the green and digital transition;
• and scenarios for adaptations, such as (non-exhaustive):
  • the diversion of regional dependencies to the Single Market,  
  • investments in new technological developments mitigating strategic dependencies and favouring autonomous advancement with the digital and green transitions, circular economy, 
  • the continuous mineral exploration in European territories and territorial waters balancing reliance on raw material imports critical for the digital and green transition. 

Considering the strategic policies driving the Open Strategic Autonomy, notably the twin green and digital transition, as well as its territorial dimension, the TAP is covering all five policy objectives of the Cohesion Policy. 

The territorial dimension of the Open Strategic Autonomy is an emerging field that requires evidence-based adaptation of regions to the new conditions for competitiveness and the green and digital transition. The new conditions are a consequence of changing patterns in global interactions. Major global structural changes induced by the Open Strategic Autonomy are expected to have major territorial impacts. The magnitude and depth of these impacts is unforeseeable and requires systematic research of regional strategic dependencies worldwide as well as transition scenarios. Consequently, the strategic orientation of the TAP can be captured under the tagline of “territorial adaptability of the EU Open Strategic Autonomy for regional competitiveness amidst the green and digital transition”. 

The TAP is open for predictive research (ex-ante) but also for ex-post research to be able to make predictions (e.g. ESPON  FDI and ESPON T4 ). It is, therefore, conducive to a wide range of methodological approaches not limited to statistics and empirical observations only. The TAP welcomes case studies, agent-based simulations and scenarios as well as strategic foresight. Building on sound scientific foundations and evidence, the TAP pursues first and foremost the delivery of policy recommendations supporting the work of policymakers at European, national and regional level. 

Nevertheless, the challenge of accessing relevant regional data was well acknowledged during the public consultations of the TAP. Particularly, regional trade statistics, being a rarity in the stocks of statistical offices, are essential for reliable supply chain analysis as well as the understanding of regional trade in value added and global strategic dependencies. Allowing the TAP to contemplate this field of engagement too is not only advantageous for the empirical work of the respective research projects but would yield double-dividend benefit for policymaking, firstly from the TAP research activities and secondly from external re-use of data beyond the lifetime of the TAP, creating an unprecedented footprint for regional policy diagnostics.  

The TAP converges multiple aspects of strategic importance to national and subnational policymakers reported during the TAP public consultations, namely regional adaptability to new geopolitical realities, the EU Green Deal within global interactions, Free Trade Agreements, global value chains, regional trade statistics and global technological networks.  

Acknowledging links and synergies, the implementation of the TAP will seek close cooperation with the EU Committee of the Regions, the EU Joint Research Centre, OECD and WTO, among others.